Analysis of Fertility in Ten Central And Eastern European Countries After 1989

Dănuţ-Vasile JEMNA, Elena CIGU


The establishment of democracy in the communist countries, which generated profound social and economic transformation, was accompanied by a decline in fertility. We attempt to provide an overall survey on fertility since 1989 in ten Central and Eastern European Countries, members of the European Union, and to identify the variables which explain the fertility decline. We will use univariate and multivariate statistical analysis to identify disparities between the ten countries, and the variables which explain these differences. Also, we developed a panel econometric model to confirm the hypothesis of a similar pattern of evolution for fertility in these countries and that the decline in fertility can be explained both through demographic and economic variables. The decline in fertility can be explained by economic growth, marriage, divorce, abortion, and migration. The empirical evidence presented in this paper supports the view that the decline in fertility over the 1989s represents the continuation of a longstanding trend of the previous period, according to the demographic transition theory, but its speed and magnitude has been influenced by the new social and economic landscape. These results can be useful for public authorities of the CEE countries to rethinking demographic policies and to ensure the sustainability of demographic growth.


fertility; demographic transition; Central and Eastern European countries; economic and social transition

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