Evoluția deficitului de cont curent în contextul aderării României la UE

Abstract

The large and persistent current account deficit of Romania is a concern for its economic and financial macro-stability on short and medium term. The paper analyzes the causes that create the deficit and the covering sources in 2006 and 2007. It is obvious that the first cause that generated and contributed to the worrying level of the current account deficit during the recent years is the ever growing deficit of the trade balance. Two major resources have been contributing to the coverage of Romania’s current account deficit during its two peak years, namely 2006 and 2007: the balance of unilateral transfers and the balance of FDI flows. Finally, the paper estimates the likely evolutions of these causes and sources of the factors that influence them after the Romania’s accession to the UE. It can be argued that, while the causes that have produced the large deficits of 2006 and of 2007 seem to persist even upon Romania’s accession to the EU, the previous coverage resources seem to become more fragile.